STEVE PIECZENIK TALKS

Saudi Arabia & Israel: Imminent Military Strike!

In the parlance of political psychology,  an arcane language,  there is a concept that when a country ‘feels completely abandoned by its protector’,   it will often strike out, either militarily or politically/economically.    Yet there is no paradigm that I happen to know about that describes what I would consider,   a folie a deux.    That is the phenomena when two different countries feel ‘hopelessly abandoned’ by the same powerful agent which guarantees their collective viability.    The confluence of two such disparate cultures,  often falsely construed as ‘perpetual enemies’,   makes for a situation which is fraught with danger.

  At a time when the Obama administration has undertaken a brave,  historical precedence of attaining a rapprochement with the arch enemy of not just one country,  Israel,  but also, Saudi Arabia;  war may become the most inevitable course of reprieve for these two seemingly beleaguered nations.

What do I mean?
 

The geopolitical strategists that we constantly hear from regarding this current situation are missing one critical point:  psychological determinants.   Whenever a nation, whatever its roots or cultural antecedents,   be it Jewish or Muslim,   feels that it has been abandoned by its ‘big daddy’—America—it will feel that it has no other choice  but to ‘act out,’ in retaliation for the ‘abandonment’.    In the particular case of the USA-Iran rapprochement,   Israel has repeatedly warned the USA and the world that it has the sovereign right to act according to its national security interests.     Israel has used every conceivable method of communication to relate the simple message that it will not under any circumstance tolerate a ‘nuclear Iran’.

   

Saudi Arabia has in a far more subtle way stated through its refusal to occupy a chair on the UN Security Council that it also will not tolerate a ‘nuclear Iran’.    It may be surprising for those novitiates of world affairs,  brainwashed by Saudi diatribes against Israel-  that in fact Saudi Arabia—an Orthodox Muslim Culture – has transformed from ‘blood thirsty anti-Zionist’ to a Jewish-loving ally.    Yet to me,  the alliance of Israel and Saudi Arabia makes a lot of sense.    If I were either an Israeli leader or one of the major Saudi Princes,   I would hark back to the old Arab proverb that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.    Israel and Saudi Arabia have a common cause with common enemies—USA,  Syria,  Iraq[Shi’ites],  Bahrain and most importantly,  Iran.

  What then should the two countries do that fulfills their sense of abandonment and consequent hostility toward their former patron saint of all things military and oil-related? 

Strike back at the USA! 

How? 

Attack Iran and obtain a two-for!    Iran can be attacked militarily through continuous air sorties of Israeli jets crossing over the sovereign territory of Saudi Arabia.    Since the Shi’ites of Iran represent a minority position in the Muslim world,  Saudi Arabia can muster the support of Sunni Muslims all over the world— close to one billion Sunnis.

  What are the consequences of this type of coordinated attack?
  Very little for Israel and Saudi Arabia! 

  Iran closes off the Straits of Homuz where most of the world’s oil passes through this twenty-mile narrow passageway.

Guess what happens next?
  Saudi Arabia in concert with UAE,  Qatar, and other oil-producing countries increase their oil productions to compensate for the Iranian oil depletion.    The world economy goes astray for a while until the stock markets realize that there is no real shortage of world oil.

The total outcome of the combined Saudi Arabia/Israeli attack?

America can do very little.   It’s military capacity and will power has been completely usurped by ten useless years of misbegotten wars in Iraq and Afghanistan,  thanks for Clinton,  Bush Jr, and Obama.

Which country will enter the ensuing power vacuum in the Middle East?
 

Why our friend and ex-KGB operative Vladimir Putin.    No one has earned more of the right to wield power than Putin.   He has used brute force to ascend through the labyrinth of secrecy,  deception and assassination.   Putin has shown that he is the star student of Andropov and Marcus Wolfe.    From a completely psychological perspective,   Putin is the only world leader who has understood the need for power,  manipulation and conserving national resources.

Why not laud his achievements?
  When he was offered the chance to join the neocon Cheney/Bush Iraq War,  he refused.   But he was certain to elicit profits from the failed adventure and from the one in Afghanistan.    He saw the personal and professional failings of three US presidents and calculated that they were wanting in strategy,  tactics,  and comprehension of long term consequences.    Like any aspiring Bismarck or Tsun Tzu,  he waited until his adversary,  America,  exhausted its military/economic capital and then encouraged the arenas of conflict in Iraq,  Afghanistan,  Yemen,  Sudan and Syria in order to tie down American Special Forces.

Now,  America is bereft of capacity and will power.

  What a propitious time for Israel,  Saudi Arabia to attack Iran and then allow Russia to intervene in order to act as the peace keeper?

If you think this scenario to be farfetched then take a moment before making your blessings of ‘thanks’ on Thanksgiving…. And think again!!    I hope that I am wrong!