Pax Pacifica: The Novel Written 20 Years Ago by Dr. Steve Pieczenik
Foretold the Present War Between China, Vietnam, Philippines and Japan over Spratly, Paracel Islands in the South China Sea Over Oil !!
Twenty years ago, I was writing about an impending war that I foresaw between China [PRC] and Vietnam over a small group of islands, Spratley/Paracel, over the rights of oil/gas. My assessment then was based on a simple economic/political/strategic analysis in which I saw two communist countries, emerging from their Bolshevik lethargy, and heading into the deep waters of overlapping sea lanes which included exceedingly valuable reserves of gas and oil.
At that time, I even surmised that Good Old Communists were at heart nothing more than immature capitalists who needed to embrace a fatuous ideology which would quickly succumb to financial self-interests, once they became both politically and economically mature.
It seems that day has arrived!
In Saturday’s, May10, 20014, NYTimes International Edition, there is an article entitled “In High Seas, China Moves Unilaterally…” by Jane Perlez and Keith Brasher (posted earlier) which describes in detail the recent events that I foresaw many years ago.
Let me quote from the article:
“It is the pride of China’s state-run oil industry and the nation’s first deep water drilling rig…. And parked around 17 miles off a speck of islands [ie Spratly] claimed by both China and Vietnam.”
Then the good will disappeared like old ex-communist comrades who suddenly found gold in them there waters:
“It set off four days of confrontation, with dozens of Chinese and Vietnamese naval vessels RAMMING EACH OTHER and CHINA USING WATER CANONS in a region known for its economic development, TOWARD A MILITARY CONFLICT.”
If there is one thing that I am certain off---forget the Ukraine, Russia, Crimea , the Middle East—the real tinder box is The SOUTH CHINA SEA. China is creating de facto reasons for war by installing football size, one billion dollar rigs in the South China Sea without regulations or negotiations.
In fact, China has created a new type of weapon, wherein they call these immense oil drilling rigs –“OUR MOBILE NATIONAL TERRITORY.”
I would say that this Chinese initiative is very creative but very foolhardy. As a prominent Vietnamese said correctly: “Invasion is in their blood [China], and resistance is in our blood.”
According to the end of Pax Pacifica, China loses the war with Vietnam.
Why?
From my analysis of Vietnam resistance, I would say the following words:
Vietnam defeated the Japanese occupation. They also slaughtered the French. And those of us who had been there or fought there, can remember that they also defeated the USA.
From my analysis of Vietnam resistance, I would say the following words:
Vietnam defeated the Japanese occupation. They also slaughtered the French. And those of us who had been there or fought there, can remember that they also defeated the USA.
But the real kicker which the Chinese leadership may want to remember:
The Vietnamese defeated the Chinese Invaders TWICE!
I was sent to Cambodia in the 1990’s to create a Peace Conference in which the dominant Vietnamese defeated the Khmer Rouge, sponsored by Mao and his gang.
The Vietnamese defeated the Chinese Invaders TWICE!
I was sent to Cambodia in the 1990’s to create a Peace Conference in which the dominant Vietnamese defeated the Khmer Rouge, sponsored by Mao and his gang.
A friendly word of advice to China.
Don’t mess with the Vietnamese!!
They are TOUGH, INDUSTRIOUS, AND COMBAT TESTED!!! They have never been defeated in war!!! I would strongly suggest that China engage in a bilateral oil sharing agreement with Vietnam. It’s just good capitalism or as we Americans like to say… “it’s good business all around.”
They are TOUGH, INDUSTRIOUS, AND COMBAT TESTED!!! They have never been defeated in war!!! I would strongly suggest that China engage in a bilateral oil sharing agreement with Vietnam. It’s just good capitalism or as we Americans like to say… “it’s good business all around.”
xie xie !! Thank you !
Humm
ReplyDeleteThese islands are not like the Falklands in 1982 where both sides had deep public emotions running.
ReplyDeleteThe only value of these islands is very marginal and economic. The present antics are shows of force pretending that the longstanding ambiguities over soverignty possess emotional commitments which really aren't there. What's going on is theater. If necessary there will be a negotiated solution.
Additionally,
ReplyDeleteNow that the US military has utterly failed in it's thirty year effort to act as policeman of southwest asia [and bankrupted the treasury in so doing]......
Now in order to have something to do they are proferring their next generational commitment as being to police the pacific and east asia.
Please let's not let them get away with this. They accomplished nothing in southwest asia except....
1.putting Iraq solidly in the Iranian camp
2.keeping Afghanistan solidly in the Pakistani/talib camp
3.engendering hatred toward America in the muslim world
4.creating chaos in north Africa and Syria
5.creating dissaffection for using the dollar for oil transactions.
Having done nothing but the exact opposite of American interests in the region I DON'T THINK AMERICAN POLICY IN SOUTHWEST ASIA HAS WORKED.
Back in my dayz of the 1980s we relied on diplomacy and covert action and I think maybe it worked just a little better.
LET'S KEEP THE AMERICAN MILITARY OUT OF EAST ASIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NOw FOR something very important.......................
ReplyDeleteEvery person should see the film "SHELL SHOCK" about the tens of thousands of psychiatric patients in the British army due to trench warfare in WWI.
This film documents the simple truth that these severe cases were not physical, but were the reactions of the UNCONSIOUS MIND when exposed to severe stress.
The film documents the successful treatment of these patients with cognative therapy and psychoananlysis....particularly dream analysis.
In the 1950s CIA developed it's own accurate cognative model based on the successful therapies of the shell shock patients, along with documentation from hypnosis, dream analysis, multiple personality disorder, and gender disphoria.
Today psychologists and psychiatrists are so challenged by the implications of these facts that they are pretending the "hypnosis doesn't exist," and "dreams are random meaningless firings of the synapses of the brain..." and other blather with no evidence whatsoever.
If humanity doesn't understand the human mind and behavoir then there can be no progress in human culture regardless how much technological advancement may occur.
We live in a very dark age.
SHELL SHOCK can now be found on Youtube.
ReplyDeleteGreetings, sir.
ReplyDeleteAs a Vietnamese, I really appriciate your words about our people. I am just in my twenties, but should the war happen, I would die for my country.
However, to be honest, I really don't think there would be a war between Vietnam and China. Your analysis is somehow true twenty years ago. For now, there are no reasons that China should start the war against the world, after seeing how the German and the Jap failed to do so.
I may be young and shallow, but I'd love to be widen by knowledge. I have read many articles about how this ends. Most of those are foretold words about the next world war. And that is the most absurd idea for the future.
Have you ever got an idea that this is just how the Chinese are trying to draw less attention to their inner affairs? The terrorism, the corruption, etc, happening in China were too severe to resolve?
According to his narrative, he spent 1981 to 1983 at Columbia University in New York. Since nobody saw him there, it appears that he was MISSING from 1981 to 1988. Obama admits to visiting his Occidental College friends Hamid and Chandoo in PAKISTAN in 1981 during Ramadan “and then to Indonesia to see his mother and Maya,” a three-week trip according to Obama biographer, David Remnick in “The Bridge".
ReplyDeleteA biographer of Ann Dunham-Soetoro provides eyewitness testimony of a 1983 visit to INDONESIA by Obama. Was Barry Soetoro working for the CIA with Ann Dunham in INDONESIA and PAKISTAN between 1981 and 1988 under CIA Director William Casey (Reagan Admin). Casey oversaw covert assistance to the mujahadeen resistance in AFGHANISTAN, with a budget of over $1 billion, by working closely with General Akhtar Abdur Rahman, the Director General of Inter-Services Intelligence of PAKISTAN.
OPERATION CYCLONE
The AFGHAN mujahideen benefited from expanded foreign military support from the United States, SAUDI ARABIA, PAKISTAN and other Muslim nations. SAUDI ARABIA in particular agreed to match dollar for dollar the money the CIA was sending to the Mujahideen. When Saudi payments were late, U.S Rep Charlie Wilson and Gust Avrakotos (CIA) would fly to SAUDI ARABIA to persuade the monarchy to fulfill its commitments.
This may be how Obama became so friendly with the King of SAUDI ARABIA and his merry band of Princes. This may be why SAUDI ARABIA made a $10 million donation to Harvard University just prior to Obama's application being submitted to Harvard Law School. This may also be the reason why Senator Obama's jet was delayed in RUSSIA in 2005.
The alcoholic/coke head Charles Wilson and Gust Avrokotos were not the players they claim in the Afghanistan Task Force. Wilson was nothing more than a Representative on the Appropriations Committee who liked to travel and meet with the Pakistanis involved just as a lot of big haired Houston housewives and east Texas red-necks also liked to do. The Mujahadeen was funded through the CIA and Saudi Arabia and the funds were spent by the ISI in Pakistan. Funding was small at first because it was assumed the Russians would retaliate against Pakistan if the program was effective. However by 1985 the Russians had all but wiped out the Mudjahadeen and a decision had to be made as to whether to risk a war between Russia and Pakistan by ramping up the program. Wilson and the rogue agent Avrokotos had nothing to do with that. It was a decision made by Casey and the NSC. When they decided to increase the funding at that point it may have reached the 1 billion dollar figure, with half coming from the Saudis. The Russians were faced with a new Mudjahadeen, which with American help continued their atrocities against Russian conscripts, including cutting off their hands and gang raping them before killing them [Mudjahadeen in the old Koranic tradition were fond of homosexual sex].
ReplyDeleteBecause it was the Pakistanis who were doling out the funds they gave it all to the most zealous in terms of their religious goals, and the less Islamic were ignored. Ultimately this is how the talibs came about later, in the early 1990s.
By 1985 I realized the program was accomplishing nothing except destroying the country, fueling a war with a high degree of atrocities, empowering the Islamists among the Sunnis who I had spent the last years opposing in southern Iraq regarding their Shii cousins.....
It was obvious at the time that nothing good, and everything bad, was going to come from the American support of the Mudjahadeen animals.
Personally I felt the Russians and communist Afghans were a better choice than what the west was offering - the talibs.
ATTEN:
ReplyDeleteDr. P. will be on ALEX JONES today at 1:00 EST ( 12:00 CST)
Discussing this topic.
Will be on youtube later tonight if you miss it.