Tuesday, August 27, 2013

INDIA:  In Serious Economic,  Geopolitical Trouble with China,  Bangladesh,  Pakistan and Weakening Economy!

In the past few blogs,  I have concentrated my attention on the India-Pakistan issues rather than the more popular media-focused Egyptian military coup and it’s predictable aftermath or the Syrian situation.
  The reason for this focus on South Asia is that the consequences of a disintegrating situation with regard to India and it’s neighbors has far more serious consequences than is often discussed by the media ‘pundits’.
  As the Indian-born,  famous  Victorian Age writer,  Rudyard Kipling  once  warned about the dangers of British Imperialism  in this famous poem,  “The White Man’s Burden” [1899]:
“Take up the White Man’s burden--…. Go,  bind your captive’s need;  To wait,  in heavy harness..”

India finds itself as the new Imperial Nation competing not only with Pakistan over the “Line of Control” as we described in the previous blog but it finds itself a far more serious economic and expansionist  war  with China to control vital resources  all the way from Brazil to Sri Lanka.
  The imperatives of this competition are not ideological but based on  increasing demographics for both countries and the need for maintaining a reasonable economic engine that can fuel their respective growths.

Q: What is the state of India’s present day economy? 
 A:  India, has defied  Wall Street’s predictions that the BRIC nations [Russia, Brazil, India, China] would be the fastest and most sustainable  emerging markets. 
India is presently struggling to reverse the downward spiral of the rupee,  it’s currency,  against the dollar.
India has the second largest population,  growing at the rate of 400 million people [more than the entire USA population]  per year.   India will  be far more populated than China by the year 2050.
Together  China and India constitute one third of the world’s population at present.   They are both the most significant players in the import of crude oil,  coal and natural gas.  They are natural competitors because of their close geographical proximity to one another.
Both countries compete against eagerly against each other for commodities from Brazil,  Kazakhstan,  Colombia, Afghanistan as well as in Kenya, Tanzania, and Bangladesh.

Q . What is the problem between India and Bangladesh? 
A:   Since 1974 when Bangladesh, three years after it’s hard fought war with Pakistan, has had border disputes with it’s northern neighbor, India.
In particular the presence of Indian and Bangladeshi enclaves on both sides of the border between West Bengal and Bangladesh has created security and political obstacles to relations between the two independent nations.
 India has been trying to stop the illegal influx of drugs, weapons, militants and immigrants.  Sounds , like Mexico and the USA?
 In 2001, there were major conflagrations between  two right-of-center nationalist parties,  the Bharatiya Janata Party in New Delhi and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party in Dhaka.

Q:  Why are the Chinese and Indians fighting over peaceful Tibet,  the land of the Holy Dali Lama?

AOnce again, ‘water wars’ in the Himalayas  trump Hollywood’s deceptive,  misinformed Dali Lama ‘nonsense’.
  Presently,  there is an undeclared ‘water war’ among the five  nations for the limited water resources in the Himalayas [Tibet, et. Al] .  These countries  include India,  Nepal,  Tibet, Bhutan and Pakistan.   
The most intense competition occurs between China and India.   India intends to create 293 dams over 20years in the Himalayas in order to garner over 80,000 MW of electricity,  three times what the UK uses.
  In addition China,  has plans for 100 dams to generate a similar amount of power  from the major rivers arising from poor tiny Tibet .   Another 60 dams will be built to generate more electrical power to the Mekong River and South East Asia.
  In effect, the presently pristine Indian Himalayan rivers flowing from Tibet,  will contain one dam every 32 Km of river channel.

It will be the densest dammed up river in the world.

The waters of the Himalaya provides the headwaters for the Mekong Delta,  the Brahmaputra,  the Yangtze, and the Yellow Rivers.   It is the headwaters of rivers on which half of the world’s water consumption depends upon.

I think that you get the idea.
No water, no life.
  Therefore,  political ideology subsumes importance to resource allocations and the subsequent strategic maneuvering in order to obtain precious water.
  In fact,  Pakistan,  Myanmar,  Laos,  Vietnam,  Bangladesh , Pakistan,  are all countries that will be severely impacted by the  outcome of the ‘water wars’.

  I will end this blog in the same way I began, by quoting Kipling  in his brilliant poem, “Recessional”,  which forebodes that all  could yet come to naught:
 “Far-called,  our navies melt away….
   Lo, all our pomp of yesterday
  Is one with Nineveh and Tyre
  Judge of the Nations , spare us yet,
 Lest we forget—lest we forget!”

We  Americans  do have a “White Man’s Burden” to prepare ourselves and our children to understand the strategic problems that we will face in next few decades.

  No longer can we be consumed by the trivial nonsense of political inanities that confront us on a daily basis.
  Tomorrow demands a wise, enlightened, strategic focus and not tactical quibbling.     For without water there is no life.


  1. A quick "Google" informed me rightly or wrongly that India's water shortage is down to population explosion (as stated by Dr p) and industrialisation, so it got me thinking presuming China's plight is of similar cause is the west or powers that be in the west to blame? What do I mean by that, well we in the western world are the biggest importers of Asian manufactured goods so therefore a direct cause of the industrial expansion meaning direct cause of water shortage! The irony being whilst we are purchasing Asian products these are the same products Britain and america along with other countries used to make so not only are we contributing to the plight of clean water but destroying our own jobs and manufacturing at the same time!!! Another interesting thing was that gandhi was against the mass industrialisation of india and was in favour of "cottage" industries in each town and village, I'm sure cleverer people than me can dissect my thoughts but for some reason I cannot help but think the world seems upside down!

  2. Populations, resources and lacking of, translates in time to civil unrest.

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  4. Just checked, India's annual population growth rate, according to the U.N., is about 17.5 million - not 400 million. They're multiplying at a steady rate, but not that alarming rate as stated above. Even if the actual growth number is smaller, India is still expected to replace China as the most populous country by 2030. Clearly water will be quite a problem in that region for decades to come.

  5. The water in North America, Asia and everywhere is more than enough for the populations that used to be.

    The problem isn't insufficient water but too many people.

    In Europe in the middle ages the "black death" killed 40% of the population. And what was the result?


    The drop in population lead directly to...

    1.the end of surfdom and feudalism

    2.a labor shortage causing labor to be paid wages for the first time.

    3.the creation of the middle class and merchant class

    4.the explosion in literacy and creation of books

    5.higher education, science, art... exploded - banks were formed, etc.....

    NONE of this would have happened for a thousand years if it weren't for the black death...and Islam probably would have conquered Europe!

    Thirty years ago the earth struck back at overpopulation with the HIV VIRUS.

    HIV PROMISED to save the ecology of Africa and help in the economic development of African societies by CULLING OUT HALF OF THE POPULATION OF AFRICA.


    Bill Gates, Warren Buffet and GEORGE W. BUSH raised tens of billions of dollars to send AIDS drugs to Africa so that all the HIV positive people there can have their lives extended and go on having unprotected sex with children and young girls and give them all HIV so that then they can take the medications too...


    And because of that the ecology of Africa is being destroyed and economic stress from overpopulation of Africans will doom them to eternal poverty.

    The earth strikes back at overpopulation from time to time for the well-being of man.

    It is the balance of nature.

    It is necessary and good that we all die.

    Everyone has to die.

    That's how this planet and our societies are sustained.

  6. Let me make this clear...

    When men unnecessarily kill other men that's a crime. It is destructive.

    But when NATURE kills off men it's not unnecessary or undesirable.

    It is the balance of nature at work.

    It is necessary and good.

  7. Whenever Bill Gates or George W. Bush puts their hands into anything the result is always destructive, no matter what it is. People such as they always leave destruction, injustice, suffering and misery in their wake.

    There are some pitiful people like they who are just the tools of evil on this planet.

    "By their fruits you will know them [that they are the evil ones]"