STEVE PIECZENIK TALKS

The Academy Award for Impending Reform/Peace Goes to Iran!

More than 30 million Iranians voted on February 26, 2016 for major changes in two different bodies of Iranian legislation [NYTimes, Feb. 2/28/2016]. These hopeful Iranians voted to change the composition of the 290 member Parliament; from a hardline direction determined by the clerics to one consistent with economic/political reform; which will open Iran to worldwide trade. At the same time, two senior liberal clerics were leading in the equally powerful legislative body of “Assembly of Experts,” an 88 member body which will inevitably pick the next Supreme Leader, replacing the present hard-liner Ayatollah Ali  Khamenei.

The front runners in this clerical election are Presidents Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Hassan Rouhani; both highly regarded in the west [NYTimes, 2/27/2016].

Interestingly, the father of Iranian’s Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini’s grandson, was disqualified from the elections. In this case, the usual nepotism that was rampant in both bodies of representation was relatively absent.

So what does this really mean?
For our own country, it means that many of our major transnational companies that were forbidden to do business with Iran will have another opportunity to expand their business and hire more Americans and foreigners to rebuild the war-torn Iranian infrastructure. In particular: Halliburton, Baker-Hughes and other Texas oil/gas companies should see a resurgence of business. France, Switzerland, Japan, Germany will ramp up automobile and consumer products for a sophisticated Iranian population.

In general, acceptance of Iran’s nuclear activities was really the beginning of the end of American economic sanctions that was truly hurting Iran and the world economy.

When I was there several years ago, I witnessed a raging black market [run by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard ] to compensate for the absence of a legitimate international economy. More importantly, POTUS Obama’s risk to lift the sanctions has had a very positive effect in terms of realigning the asymmetry of the fighting forces in the Middle East. Contrary to the Neocon/Israeli hysteria that Armageddon will arrive if sanctions would be lifted, nothing of the sort has occurred.

As I predicted eight years ago, Iran would return as a major military/economic power in the Middle East; neutralizing the nefarious Saudi Arabian Salafists, ISIS, Al Qaeda, Sunni terrorists, et. al. More importantly, Iran has, in conjunction with Russia, delineated a path toward peace in Syria which was completely obliterated by the inertia and incompetence of several western/Middle East players.

We should remember that those Democratic and Republican representatives who have professed expertise in foreign affairs [Marc Rubio, Ted Cruz, Hilary Clinton] were wrong on every occasion when judgement, and not experience, was demanded. All three sanctioned the misbegotten Bush Jr/Cheney war in Iraq which eventually led to the untoward consequence of bringing Iran into the fray for power. As a result of their ineptitude, Iraq is now divided into three parts –Kurd, Shi’ite, Sunni—just as I warned it would be turning that area into a post WWI scenario a la Gertrude Bell [MI-6 operative].

Similarly, Libya which was completely destroyed by the pathetic insistence of the Three Lady Tigers in the Obama Administration: Samantha Powers, Susan Rice, and of course, Hillary Clinton. Invading Libya,  a country which posed no threat whatsoever, has recapitulated the horrific consequences of inciting terrorism all over Africa and the EU. Those who had espoused war, failed our nation. And those who initiated peace talks succeeded to improve our financial/political standing in the world.

Grant onto Caesar that which is his: Obama and Kerry must be lauded for their enduring work over the years in trying to seek a lasting peace with Iran. Whatever happens in the forthcoming elections in the USA, the youth of both nations should mirror to some extent the powerful dynamic forces razing the staid political establishments of both America and Iran.The youth of both countries have screamed for change in the political system. So change, it should be… not for us but for our children’s better future.

And….. the Oscar goes to the Iranian people, who for thousands of years ruled as the Persian Empire, now have come forth again with the wisdom and compassion of Cyrus, the Great.

I will end with a Persian warning to its own people:

“If fortune turns against you, even jelly breaks your tooth.”

Merci!