STEVE PIECZENIK TALKS

Two American Diplomatic Impasses: Is there a Doctor in the House???

[1]  Karzai Refusing To Sign Bilateral Security Agreements.

[2]  Increasing Chill Between two American Allies—South Korea and Japan.

How do American diplomats deal with a recalcitrant bipolar Karzai who refuses to sign a bilateral security agreement with the USA in the midst of a four-day long ‘loya jirga’ [a meeting of 2,500 Afghan tribal elders and leaders]?

  Then how does SecDef create a rapprochement with President Park Geun-hye of South Korea whose father was a Colonel in the Japanese Occupation Army and  Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe,  whose grandfather was the architect of Japan’s Empire Builder ?

Abe’s grandfather was arrested by the Americans before becoming Prime Minister of Japan again. 

In two separate articles (posted earlier) in the Sunday  NYTimes,  one by Martin Fackler/Choe  Sang-Hun and the other by Rod Nordland,   these two American diplomatic problems were delineated.

In both cases,   the consequences of not resolving their respective differences would result in serious conflagrations.    What the seemingly different situations present are major problems for diplomatic negotiations.    Neither geopolitical nor Balance of Power considerations will be critical to the resolution of these impending crises.    What will be essential in ameliorating these problems will be a keen understanding of psychological dynamics and the different types of nation-state behavior.

Unfortunately,   most of our distinguished diplomats and White House representatives have never been trained in psychological dynamics nor nation-state behavior.    The absence of this type of knowledge was not a function of ignorance or malicious neglect.    The reason our different administrations make so many mistakes in  creating effective bilateral or multilateral agreements,   resides in the fact that most of the diplomats/ representatives have been inculcated in the legal/rational model school of thought.    Ironically,   the origins of the CIA was in the foresight of  Wild Bill Donovan [father of the OSS] to have recruited many anthropologists [e.g. Margaret Mead ] and psychoanalysts [e.g. Walter C. Langer] to study Hitler’s behavior.

 

Absent from present day tutorials on diplomacy or negotiations is the element of how different world leaders react in a variety of scenarios which have nothing to do with historical or geographical imperatives.    In the past,  the CIA  had a unit which was affectionately known in the Intelligence Community as ‘Nuts and Sluts’ where the distinguished psychiatrist,   Dr Jerry Post would develop insightful psychological profiles.    But the problem that occurred during my tenure in national security was  that Dr Post was writing a ‘Beethoven Symphony’ for most policy planners who could only play chopsticks.    They were not stupid just simply untutored in the ways to strategize these psychological insights.

 

Hopefully,   the Obama administration has one or two individuals who may be ‘exposed’ to the psychological tensions building up in two different parts of the world—Afghanistan and South Korea-Japan.    National Security Advisor Susan Rice has a very distinguished background,   having attended the exclusive all-girls school—National Cathedral in Washington D.C.,   where I happen to know that they do teach some psychology and child socialization theory.    Later Ms. Rice attended Stanford University where, quite frankly, ‘anything goes’ .    One can only hope that Ms Rice might be able to deal with Karzai—a well-documented  bipolar,  whimsical,  manipulative Afghan Leader who once owned a deli in Silver Springs,  MD.

 

On the other hand,   Mr Hagel,  a brave Vietnam vet,  entrepreneur,  former Senator,   has evinced no particular scholarship nor tutorial in psychology or nation-state behavior.

Not his fault since his path to politics was embedded in his past heroism and the daily requirements of manipulation and calculations in his role as Senator.     But nothing can provide him with the necessary tools to resolve the most contentious of all problems—an imminent conflagration between Japan and South Korea where China takes advantage of the USG’s inadequate understanding Asian psychology.

  Is there a ‘doctor in the house’ to help both Hagel and Rice and most importantly…..America?
  Will the administration’s pride allow them to bring in whatever skills are required to help them resolve psychological problems that can never be assuaged by dictat nor force structures?

Obamacare should be a clear demonstration to POTUS that without the notion of competency or implementation,   wishful thinking leads all well-intentioned leaders into the ‘inferno of misbegotten’ ills.

 Hubris Ate Nemesis!
 Pride proceeds is own punishment!