As Our Novitiates of War Scream for Retaliation Against ISIS, Turkey is Ready to Invade Syria!
Sometimes multilateral diplomacy, in concert with military force structure, does work. Irrespective of the shrill cries that “our brave sailors were captured and humiliated by Iran”, a far more important narrative is evolving in the Middle East. BTW, Iran did not “capture” nor “humiliate” our sailors. They actually helped our young men to retrace their navigational mistake and place them out of Harm’s Way.
In the meantime, according to reliable intelligence [Stratfor; January 19, 2016] Turkey is in the process of preparing a major land invasion into Syria to finally clear the land that ISIS occupies along the Syrian-Turkish border. In conjunction with the Russians, Iranians and the US military forces, Turkey has sought permission to clear the minefields planted along the border of the ISIS-controlled Syrian town of Jarabulus in preparation for a land invasion of Syria. Concurrently, Russia has tempered its anger over the aberrant Sukhoi Su-24 which was shut down by Turkey some time ago. In return, Turkey has promised that it will not march toward the buffer zones of the Mediterranean Sea which are controlled by Bashar Assad and his Syrian Government forces; as well as Russian troops.
What is about to happen, in my humble opinion, is a massive Pinzer-like squeeze of the Saudi-sponsored ISIS via a northern attack by Turkish troops to clear ISIS from Aleppo [a once beautiful city where Agatha Christie wrote her mystery stories]; while the Kurdish People’s Protection Units[YPG] expand their successful assaults from the eastern part of Syria toward the west [Euphrates River]. From the south, Syrian Government forces, backed by Russian air/land firepower, are advancing north toward the city of al-Bab. From the west, rebel forces backed by Turkish military forces [Mare Operations Room] are moving eastward.
In effect, we should be witnessing the beginning of the end of ISIS control over Syria; and possibly even Iraq. Both VP Joe Biden and U.S. Assistant Secretary of Europe Victoria Nuland [our favorite profanity-shouting neo-con] will go to Istanbul to coordinate Turkish military advances with Iran, Russia, Hezbollah, and other parties in the conflict. For those of you who worry about the Holy Land, Israel, they have been guaranteed by the USG and Russia that no missiles or guerrilla warfare will encroach on any of their supposed territories.
This major Turkish land invasion into Syria, may be just the right catalyst that will justify Obama’s long-held wishes not to send American troops into Syria. We have American boots in the ground. Yet, like most shell-games of the different Presidents, these “American boots” are confined to such well-defined nomenclatures as mercenaries, Special Forces, and proxies. Not real, ordinary American foot-soldiers!
The new Drone Warfare has placed a premium on reversing our strategic military outcomes. Instead of measuring outcomes by body-counts; which we foolishly implemented during the Vietnam War [unfortunately contrived by MIT Political Science Department]; we are, now, ordering our officers to minimize battlefield casualties. Therefore a US military Captain or Major has to make certain that he does not win a conflict; but, instead he/she has to avoid an unnecessary engagement in order to maximize the number of men he/she brings back home safely and intact.That it is the new approach to modern-day warfare.
I have written over several years that our best allies in the zone of conflict have been those seemingly “Muslim terrorists” who had devastated our American soldiers during the inane invasion of Iraq. Americans are now depending primarily on the brave, highly combat-experienced Shi’ite soldiers provided by Iran[ IRG] and Hezbollah. So, we, Americans, should take heed of the fact that neither Ayatollah Khomeini nor Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah are insane, anti-American; nor anti-Israel. Any rhetoric to the contrary defeats the delicate coalition built over decades by several US Presidents and the CIA/MI community.
Times have changed. What were once were our enemies; have now become our allies. And, our erstwhile allies, the Saudis, have become our potential enemies.That is the nature of Realpolitik.
Remember: Americans really have no friends only national interests; and, we build alliances accordingly. For the moment, let’s give POTUS and our military/intelligence community some breathing room so that they can do what they have done best—keep our women/men out of Harm’s Way with a minimal body count!!
Once again, Erdogan, welcome to Syria! Please don’t take too long to wipe out ISIS… Also, please, try to stop your infighting with the Kurds.
As the 2000 Year old man, Mel Brooks, once said—“Good luck”!