A Friendly Warning to China: STOP SHIPPING ARMS to IRAN …. or SUFFER the CONSEQUENCES… external conflict may result in Internal Dissension!
Once again the NY Times comes through with incredible intelligence. Please read Sunday, March 3, 2013 article entitled “Seized Chinese Arms Raise Concerns In Iran” by Robert F. Worth and C. J. Chivers (posted earlier). For those of you who may be concerned that I may have been brainwashed by the so-called mainstream media, I checked all the facts with well-placed corroborative sources in the intel community.
Let me spell out what the article says (placed discretely on P18 of the NY Times), in order not to create undue diplomatic tensions between China and the US.
In summary, an Iranian “dhow” [small boat], JEEHAN 1 manned by Iranian sailors, was captured off the Yemeni Coast. It was found to be transporting SOPHISTICATED CHINESE ANTI-AIRCRAFT MISSILES. THE QW-1M!!!
Let me tell you what that really means in very practical pre-emptive war terms. Most of the missiles were manufactured in China circa 2005. They included QW1M and carried the iconic stamp of the Chinese National Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation. This Chinese Army (PLA) ‘cut-out’ company is well-known to the intelligence community around the world. It has already been sanctioned for illegal transfer of heavy assault weapons to Pakistan [a USA ‘on-and-off’ ally] and Iran [a definite “no-no’!]
Fortunately the US military and Yemeni ally interdicted the illegal shipment of arms thanks to good intelligence work.
Important: Now you see why it is so important to have outstanding US civilian/military intelligence. It cannot be sacrificed at any cost!
Good intelligence is the backbone of all democratic societies and their respective national securities. In my world of intelligence, I always have, and still believe, that US intel can, more often than not prevent our brave warriors from dying needlessly in wars that we, wittingly or unwittingly, find ourselves trapped within. Believe me, in thirty years of this type of experience, I have rarely met a military officer who wanted to go into a war. But I have met more than enough liberal and conservative civilian leaders who were more than happy to send, not their kids, but our boys and girls to a needless war.
This anti-missile weaponry as well as others that I will soon delineate, will tip the balance of power so off kilter that it will literally threaten the entire Middle East and not just Israel. This weaponry threatens Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Lebanon, Israel, Syria, Jordan and the Northern Magreb.
Message to China: this is a MAJOR FAUX-PAS on the part of your military/civilian strategists and the rapacious not–too–bright Ayatollah Khameini.
Sidebar: As many of you readers already know from my previous blogs where I have discussed the conversations between me and Ayatollah Khomeini when we were discussing the freedom of the American hostages, the brilliant Ayatollah told me in confidence that he was very much concerned to leave the Iranian Revolution to the oversight of his not ‘very bright’ son Ayatollah Khameini.
So to find that Iran has ordered the following shipment of arms from CHINA places both CHINA and IRAN in very much of a SERIOUS CONUNDRUM from which, each country might find themselves with severe internal problems.
Let’s enumerate the ways that CHINA had mixed it’s Mandarin, Cantonese, Uyghur, Muslim, Tibet, South Asian, India problems into one big potential mess.
According to both the NY Times article and US INTEL the Jeehan 1 took on cargo in an Iranian military controlled-port located in a harbor on Lesser Tunb Island, an islet west of the Straits of Hormuz.
On January 23, 2013, the Jeehan1 was pursued by the American Destroyer Farragut and a Yemeni boarding team off the coast of Al Ghaydah.
The Dhwa flew a Panamanian flag but hidden beneath ersatz fuel cargo, the US Navy discovered the following so-called ‘non-weapons’:
- 316,000 cartridges for Kalashnikov Rifles.
-63,000 cartridges for PK machine guns or the Dragunov Series of sniper rifles [remember the danger ‘snake eaters’ can really cause!].
-12,000 cartridges for 12.7 millimeter DShK machine guns.
- 95 RPG-7 rocket launchers.
The rifle cartridges were packed in crates resembling packaging used by Iran’s Defense Industries Organization. It too was already sanctioned by the world community.
What does this all really mean?
For Iran this means more and more sanctions which are already taking a major toll on it’s economy and social fabric. The youth of Iran, as I discovered in my recent trips, have as many drug addiction problems as they did under the Shah. The Iranian currency is markedly deflated, the black market is inflated and the Ayatollah (as his father correctly predicted) is not “very bright” and cannot effectively run the Iranian Revolutionary Government.
For China this means big trouble. It seems like the Communist Central Committee cannot control the People’s Liberation Army. In an act of defiance, the PLA has told it’s civilian leadership that they are NOT in charge.
Why do I say that?
The most important concern for the civilian leadership of China is internal political/economic stability. The civilian leaders of China are too smart to try to de-stabilize the Middle East with weaponry that they knew would be apprehended by our intelligence/naval community. That means the PLA dared the Communist Civilian Leaders to stop them!
If the PRC leaders had stopped the PLA from making this “shipment” it might have meant a Military Coup from within China by the PLA against the civilian leadership of the Communist Party.
However, if the Civilian Leadership ordered this foolish move of destabilizing weaponry into the Middle East- it means to me that the new civilian leaders of China are completely inept and lack judgement. Certainly no Deng Xiaoing or Jiang Zemin would have risked political and economic stability for a short term gain of little military consequence for the Chinese PLA itself. Would the Chinese civilian leaders really risk starting an avalanche of “embargoes” of Chinese-made products which are currently inundating the U.S.A., Europe and the Middle East?
China should beware, do not make the same mistake that Japan and China made. Do not play with American resolve. We may get a little lazy some times but as I once warned a senior Soviet Official those “children who make Disneyland toys” are also capable and willing to take down the Soviet Union- without a war!
China should remember that they need water very badly and also, they have Tibet and India literally on their rear!
The new "would be" leader Xi Jinping likes to support the military publicly and privately. Xi also is full bluster and confidence and wants his military "battle ready." The question is: how much is he willing to risk economically, politically and socially to "prove" his leadership? A drop in demand for Chinese goods will cause unemployment and social unrest (more than China already has). An escalation in our currency war will be bad news for China domestically. Thirsty China has many enemies close by. This could be the perfect time for manufacturing to come back to America! Hecho in U.S.A. !