STEVE PIECZENIK TALKS

Putin Grows from Intelligence Tactician to Global Chessboard Strategist

While Obama is Avoiding Any Strategic Games.

By now everyone in the world has seen Russia engaged in combat in Syria.  26 Kalibr Cruise Missiles fly from the Caspian Sea into Syria, targeting various groups which primarily are against Bashar Assad. Concomitantly, Iranian Revolutionary Guards as well as Lebanese Hezbollah fighters are directly confronting those same elements. Remember: many of these groups were created by the Pentagon as well as others created by CIA.

So what does this all mean?

If one looks at carefully at the battlefield, one can become quite confused, if not disoriented by the shifting kinetics at any given moment. Yet, basic propositions have become more clear with respect to Putin and his relationship with the USA [read Obama]. After almost a year, Putin has honed his skills in the Games of State. Last year, he found himself tied down in the Ukraine supporting “separatists”.  However, he quickly pivoted around from there; initiated the Minsk Talks led by Byelorussia, and then prepared for his premeditated incursion into Syria as he watched Americans falter time and time again.

He understood that our rapprochement with Iran was an attempt to reconfigure the Middle East map where Iran, Russia’s erstwhile ally, and Turkey would be the new dominant powers as America withdrew to Asia. Putin systematically created small skirmishes around Moldova and Central Asia in order to show that, despite a failing economy and the US embargo, he could still maneuver around the periphery of the former Soviet Union. In fact, he moved some of his planes and submarines along the northern tier countries of NATO and potential NATO countries to warn them that it would be problematic to engage Russian forces. Poland, Hungary, Sweden, Norway and Finland were notified that there would be increasing friction with Russia, if they put NATO troops [read American troops] in the Baltic areas.

Putin became increasingly restless as Turkey allowed American fighter jets to land on Turkish air bases from which they could better attack Bashar Assad’s government forces. Once again, Putin saw that the chessboard was showing a not too subtle incursion into Russia’s former Soviet territories and allies. Putin remained exacerbated by the US bombing of Russia’s closest ally, Serbia, during the Balkan Wars in the 1990’s. Putin had to create a strategy which would demonstrate his resolve to act on behalf of the perceived national interest at a time when Russia was embroiled in domestic problems.

Over the past years, Putin saw Obama hesitate to act in Syria, rightfully or wrongfully. He also witnessed America’s continuous military/civilian ineptness in dealing with Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan. He realized that our senior military officers and POTUS had no idea of how to conduct effective counter-insurgency strategies. This U.S.G. ineptitude was followed by even more failures in trying to institute post-combat nation states. Putin calculated correctly that America was faltering as a presumed super power. 

At that point, he quickly allied himself with America’s new business partner, Iran, to assure himself that he could be part of the newly created hegemony in the Middle East. That would allow Iran, the Persian Empire, to re-establish itself against the CIA-created ISIS, Al Qaeda et. al. Putin chose to ally himself with Iran against the former American Sunni allies –Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Dubai, Bahrain, and Jordan. Putin, who has always been a close friend of the Jewish State, assured Bibi that the Russian missiles and jet fighters would not come next to Israeli air space [which is in fact quite small].

Putin had all of his chess pieces ready to move over the past four months. He built a tight alliance with Iran [while Iran fought with USA in Iraq]; Hezbollah [thousands of volunteer fighters]; and Bashar’s dwindling forces. The long distance missile strike from the Caspian Sea into Syria was intended as a clear message to all American allies that Russia could easily attack them with precision without even having to leave it’s warm water ports of the Caspian Sea. He placed combat troops [of all types] on the ground while he provided massive air coverage. This was a clear message to the world that Putin always is true to his word about protecting his allies. In contrast, America has never been effective in ‘crossing the red lines’.

Putin has reaffirmed what anyone who has worked with and against the Russians knows: Don’t Mess with them!  He embodies everything about Russia that is both admirable and bewildering. The Russians will always come to a friend’s side, if that person is really a Russian friend. The Russians are true to their word. If they make a deal with you and you play straight with them, they will be forthright. Yet if a Russian suspects that you may be too clever by-a-half, then they will play you like an accordion, jerking you around till you have had enough and quit.

Above all, Russians like to play and drink. If they feel you are not with them in temperament or in spirit, they will make certain that you will learn to respect them one way or another. I am not a big drinker but when I worked with the Soviets in Moscow and Tbilisi, Georgia, I had to toast, drink and learn to keep my wits about me while doing the necessary business. The essence of Russia is relationships that they can respect and be respected in turn.

Instead, we provoked them in Ukraine and insisted that Russia had then ‘annexed Crimea’ when in fact Russian troops and ships have been there for over well over one hundred years. Americans are perceived as childish and naive when we do not have political/military leaders who know anything about Russia other than the simplistic caricatures that are presented by our neocons and war hawks who have never really been on the front lines with or against the Russians.

Putin picked off our weakness as he became more enfeebled economically. He was warned to cease and desist his provocative actions. He has made his decision. He will continue to fight in Syria and elsewhere until he justifies the millions of lives that had been spent in creating the Soviet Union. The Battle of Stalingrad, where he had lost many of his relatives, is the primary paradigm for his defiance and resistance. He knows all too well, unlike most of our leaders, that Russia really won WWII because by the time that battle was over, Nazi Germany had been defeated. Yet, we never sent a senior official to the 70^th Year Memorial of The Soviet Victory in WWII.

Big Mistake!
Now, we pay for all those slights and indignities that we incurred in our stand-off with Putin. Let’s see what chess moves he has left and hope that sooner than later, our POTUS starts to play at the same level. That does not mean going into Syria and fighting an ephemeral enemy. It means that our next moves must be thought out very carefully.

I can always dream… that is very Oblamov of me.