Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Putin’s Russia: On the Tipping Point of Economic/Political Instability!
Russia is like And Quiet Flows the Don [River] ”—quiet on the surface but turbulent below. When one discusses Russia, whether it be peace or war, one must always remember that this is not just a country but an entity replete with a rich texture of civility, angst, and civil wars. Nothing about Russia is simple. Remember it is composed of eleven highly varied time zones spanning both Europe and Asia. It is not about one particular demagogue replacing another one. That is a narrative that is bereft of a deep appreciation of 20th Century Russian history.

I have to go back to a book, which I read at my mother’s behest, entitled And Quiet Flows the Don by Nobel Prize winner Mikhail Sholokhov. The book contains four volumes depicting the history of the famous [or infamous] Cossacks who lived on the Don River –their lives and loves [without love there is no Russian novel]—during the First Word War. The author follows several Cossack families through their trials and tribulations during the Bolshevik Revolution and the subsequent Civil War which lasted for over a decade [contrary to popular images]. The book describes the pains and sorrows of the Russian people during a time of political repression and economic starvation, much like today.
The irony of the book’s title is quite apparent.
As the Don River flows quietly and majestically like Russia itself, beneath the placid waters are the turbulent currents of impending history—much like Putin’s present stance of impending suppression of his own people. Why do I call Putin’s actions ‘impending’ when in fact, we are beginning to see the elimination of free speech and the congregation of protestors? Russia is now on a tipping point of economic instability accompanied by social unrest.

As I have written for over a year, Russia’s economy is evaporating at a far faster rate than I would have predicted even in one of my more somber blogs. In fact, the financial picture is bleak. Eighty-three different regions are approaching bankruptcy. Their banks have no more liquidity to service their clients. Foreign investments have dropped by a staggering fifty percent [unofficially –far more]. Close to 200 Billion USDs fled the country, placing thousands of local Russian banks on the brink of a major financial collapse.
Without exaggeration, Greece literally pales in comparison to the problems that Russia is facing economically as oil continues to drop below $50 USD per barrel. The problem is that neither Putin nor his Kremlin coterie of security sycophants have any idea as to which financial instruments to use to attempt a correction of the ‘impending’ financial disaster. They are not economists. Nor are they requesting the help of more advanced western countries to try and implement a drastic fiscal program to avoid the aforementioned problems.

Between Putin’s personal arrogance and inherent  ignorance, he has resorted to the only instruments of financial and political control that he has been taught and knows---suppression of potential Russian protestors. Putin will use the hammer to knock down any regional financial problems instead of employing the incredible intellect available to him throughout Russia and the surrounding countries in Western Europe [especially Germany and the northern tier nations]. He will beat the protestors in place of resolving an imminent financial catastrophe that has been long in the making thanks to Putin’s avarice for wealth and fame.That is not an outcome that I or any other caring friend of Russia would wish on these brave people who have suffered more than any other during WWII and the aftermath.
Yet as the Don flows quietly… and no protests have erupted, but Putin knows all too well that below the surface of a placid country lies the phoenix of discontent that has erupted continuously from the very first days of the 20th Century, from the time of Czar Nicholas to Stalin and onto the dissolution of the Soviet Union—followed by more turbulence and political chicanery.

When I was personally involved in the regime change in the Soviet Union, I had reaffirmed to my colleagues in our National Security apparatus, that we changed only the face of the Russia people.. but we had done nothing to change the admirable suffering Russia people themselves.
And so, I write to you all, my Russia friends, whom I admire for your stalwart nature; your tolerance for suffering but enough is enough.
Never forget that the Don River flows quietly through much of Mother Russia but beneath its smooth surface it is exceedingly turbulent. Let’s wait and see which way the river flows, into Moscow or away from it. It is far beyond credulity to see eighty-three regions fall mercilessly into the river because one man did not know how to navigate The Quiet Don!
Please remember the words of our great Russian novelist, Leo Tolstoy, who wrote the following:
“Not believing in force is the same as not believing in gravity.”
Vsoyvo Harishivo! 
All the best!


  1. Just been reading an article stating Putin's popularity has risen to 90% and the second biggest political party the communist party urge Putin to be more "assertive" with those whom they traditionally regard as "enemies" and as the article rightly points out the serial regime changers (that's a great collective term) would be faced with a situation whereas the most credible party whom opposes Putin would follow policy the regime changers would hate more! It's probably worth pointing out that over 70% support Putin on Ukraine as well according to the article I read, the article can be found on he's a very good and thorough journalist who has a knack of making things easier to understand and I'm sure you and your readers may be interested

    1. I agree with direction of your observation del stead. And i think Dr P. is 100% right.
      But lets look now things from Russian and my perspective. For that I will mention stance of historian Niall Ferguson who said that Soviet Union made huge mistakes compared to China. Because USSR started economical and political changes in same time, while China did only economical changes.
      Results in Soviet Union were 15M dead people in 1990es (private health care, IMF shock therapy, free market and privatisation causing starvation and record number of Russian prostitutes exported abroad etc).
      While Chinese did not take that path of capitalistic Philippines, Mexico, India, Haiti, Indonesia, Liberia and Nigeria because they did not allow human rights and introduction of democratic elections.
      I would recommend to USSR now, that it would be best for them to go back to Communism (like they are now doing in Eastern Ukraine) and then with Chinese capital and brotherly help of Chinese Communist colleagues to rise industry of Russia together. USSR once again could be revolution exporting mechanism both for China and Russia. China could be bridge between US capitalists and Russia. While USSR could export revolutions to Europe and South America. That way China could not be blamed for revolution exporting and Russia would overcome problems of 1990es. Of course USSR would introduce workplace democracy of Richard Wolff and public banks like now is doing in Eastern Ukraine. Eastern Ukraine is model for USSR.

    2. Gennady Zyuganov (president of Russian communist party) is saying that Jesus was biggest communist ever.
      He is now Christian. I mean he is right but problem is that both he and Zhirinovsky (ultranationalist) as only real position toward Putin are not very superbly intelligent and not super eloquent, like they were very intentionally chosen as such to be.

      need translation

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  3. I do believe that Russia and its many states need a man like Putin to run them. He is brilliant at out maneuvering the West because as Dr P has said, he was trained by the two best Spymasters. While our leaders have been 'trained' by Eton and Harvard. Regarding financials they have unlimited energy resources and technology mostly from the West to use them. In fact NASA are now paying the Russians half a billion to send US Astronauts into space. Maybe NASA should go on one of those Tony Robbins courses to raise some more funds. In short we need a guy like Putin as a steady hand to balance the 'Strangeloves' in the West.

    1. Ah, if I were CIA I would make revolution tomorrow in Russia, or in any country on world very simply by pointing this advantages of EU:

      Unconditional popular guaranteed liveable income of Netherlands: translation needed

      Rent controls of Paris:

      As CIA I would lie that that model is also coming from USA and that that is what USA will introduce also. Also I would pretend that there are no republicans in USA and that Jeb Bush is not going to win election. I would pretend that also that in US intelligence organisation do not work traitorous anti-american masochistic agents with deficient anti-socialist brains and that they have knowledge about history and Marxism.

  4. I think the Cossacks fought on the German side against the Russian/Communist government of Stalin during the war.

    Like many of the old CIA hands from the post-war era who I knew I believe that everything would have been better if Germany would have defeated the USSR.

    It certainly would have been better for the millions of young Polish, Romanian, Austrian, German, Balitic, Ukrainian and other girls who were raped by Communist soldiers whose boots and trucks were provided by the United States government.

  5. In the German Armed Forces including the Waffen SS rape was punishable by immediate death so there were no rapes of anyone by Germans.

    In fact there was no cruel treatment of anyone by Germans because Germans are not cruel people...unless you murder their soldiers in which case they go apeshit with reprisals.

    Germans don't like wickedness, and although there is no evil or cruelty in Germans they can and will use violence when they think, wrongly or rightly, that their cause is justified.

    1. Michael you have not met my German Mother-in-law. The Mice used to throw themselves on the traps when she came around.

  6. Dr.P I don't think you understand the Russian people.

    They are not "stahlwart" or possessed of any such virtues.

    Putin himself is the embodiment of the Russian national character.

    Russians are corrupt, cruel, immature, etc., and not possessed of any virtue. They are venal and corrupt to the core and they have no problems with anything Putin is fact they wish he'd do more of it.

    I think you screwed the pooch on this one.

  7. Here's the truth about the conflict with Russia>>>